The Carousel Keeps Turning- India- Russia oil trade
Carousel- a crowd favourite ride in amusement parks- is used as a metaphor to signify that life continues and moves forward irrespective of the happenings. When this analogy is applied in the context of international trade, one relation that instantly comes to mind is that of India and Russia. Despite changing regimes, wars and upheavals, the two countries have remained committed to stable, mutually beneficial relations.
February 2022 marked an inflection point in the Russia-India oil trade. That was when Russian missiles hit Ukrainian territory and turned the world oil industry on its head. Pre-2022, Russian oil accounted for below 1% of India’s oil imports and India depended largely on its middle eastern partners for supply.
Post-invasion, India- Russia relations in oil trade got a shot in the arm. The value of crude oil imports from Russia rose from less than $2.5 billion in FY 2021-22 to over $31 billion in FY 2022-23 to around $140 billion in FY 2023-24, accounting for 35.9% of its oil imports.
Such a trade boost was despite of sustained pressure from the western bloc of countries, threats of sanctions as well as USA led price cap on Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Russia provided India with highly discounted crude oil and an assured supply stream. Through the year 2025, oil imports from Russia maintained their pace and reached a high of 2,089 thousand barrels per day in June 2025.
Unable to bear with the intransigence of India, the USA under President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs of 25% on India, in addition to the existing 25% reciprocal tariffs.
As a result of the sanctions and fear of further reprisals, India adjusted its oil trade with Russia and the imports reached a 38 month low 1,217 thousand barrels per day in December 2025.
The new year brought some good news in the form of the long-pending US-India trade deal. The additional tariffs were rolled back and the reciprocal tariffs also underwent a downward revision. India increased its purchase of US oil and things were just starting to settle when the US and Israel undertook a joint invasion of Iran on February 28, 2026.
Like clockwork, the oil prices went up, supply chains got disrupted and international relations went for a toss. Caught off-guard by the turmoil in the oil industry, the US was seen scrambling for options. It eventually granted a 30-day waiver to India to import Russian oil stranded at sea. It effectively allowed imports of increased quantities from Russia, leading us full circle to the start of February 2022. After all, the carousel keeps turning.
Superb! Extremely proud!
ReplyDeleteThankyou so much.
DeleteAmazing!!! Loved reading it!
ReplyDeleteThankyou.
DeleteGood initiative to share your views and opinions on varied geopolitics. Keep up with the blog and making us wiser.
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DeleteThe Carousel of International Relations: A Counter View
ReplyDeleteThe analogy of a carousel is indeed appropriate for international relations — but perhaps not in the manner suggested. A carousel keeps moving, but the riders, speed and direction of movement keep changing. Similarly, relations between nations are rarely built on permanent friendship; they are built on changing strategic interests.
The India–Russia relationship has undoubtedly been one of the more durable partnerships in modern diplomacy. However, describing it as an uninterrupted story of unwavering commitment risks oversimplifying history.
The Soviet Union’s role during the 1965 India–Pakistan conflict was more complex than a straightforward pro-India position. Moscow sought to expand its diplomatic influence in South Asia and maintained engagement with both New Delhi and Islamabad. The Tashkent Declaration of 1966, brokered by Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin between Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and President Ayub Khan, demonstrated Soviet diplomatic ambition as much as friendship. Shastri’s sudden death in Tashkent soon after signing the agreement remains a subject of continuing public debate and speculation, though no conclusive evidence has established foul play.
It would also be historically incomplete to view Indo–Soviet relations purely through the prism of loyalty and friendship. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union, like other major powers, actively attempted to shape global opinion and expand ideological influence. Former Soviet intelligence officials and the Mitrokhin papers have alleged extensive KGB “active measures” in India, including attempts to influence sections of politics, media, public discourse and intellectual circles.
Indian universities also became spaces where competing global ideologies found expression. Institutions such as Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), established during the Cold War era, developed strong traditions of Marxist and Left scholarship, reflecting many of the intellectual currents dominant internationally at the time. Critics argue that Soviet-era ideological influence contributed to the growth of such thought streams, whose impact continues to be debated in contemporary India. Supporters, however, view them as part of academic diversity and independent political evolution. Either way, it illustrates that global powers have historically sought influence not merely through armies and economics, but also through ideas and institutions.
The recent Russia–India oil trade is another example of this principle. India did not dramatically increase Russian oil imports because of sentiment or historical nostalgia alone; it did so because discounted crude oil, energy security and economic pragmatism demanded it. Similarly, Russia offered favourable terms not merely out of friendship but because Western sanctions forced it to seek dependable alternative markets.
The same principle applies to the United States and other global powers. Pressure, sanctions, tariffs, trade incentives and diplomatic negotiations are all instruments nations use to advance their own objectives.
Therefore, the real lesson from India’s relationship with Russia is neither that Moscow has always stood by New Delhi nor that any other power is permanently opposed to India. The lesson is that nations do not have eternal friends or eternal enemies — they have enduring interests.
The carousel of geopolitics does keep turning, but wise nations understand that the objective is not emotional loyalty to any one rider on the carousel, but knowing when to ride along, when to step off and when to choose a different direction.
For India, strategic autonomy — engaging Russia, America and others while placing Indian interests first — remains the most sensible path forward.
Very well captured entire sequence of roller-coaster events 😊
ReplyDelete.......and the ride continues.....ironically oil and flow is both ways now....crude flows to India and refined products return back to Russia...... 👍👍
Very true. The trade is extremely significant for both countries. Thankyou for reading.
DeleteSo well written. Can't wait to read your next post!
ReplyDeleteThankyou. Hope you enjoy reading.
DeleteClear crisp writing.
ReplyDeleteCarousel ab apt metaphor
Thankyou so much.
DeleteVery well explained
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot.
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